Mar 09

 

 

With the second month of 2012 behind us, the employment situation continues to deliver moderate, but consistent growth. The economy added 227,000 nonfarm payroll jobs this month, yielding no change in the unemployment rate at 8.3 percent. Private-sector employment added 233,000 in February, with professional and business services aiding the increase by adding 82,000 jobs. Just over half of the jobs increase in professional and business services occurred in temporary help services, with 45,000 jobs added this month. Other gains were seen in computer systems design (+10,000) and health care employment, which has risen by 360,000 over the past 12 months.

A combination of recent, positive economic news and rising consumer confidence may be helping calm fears brought on by higher gas prices and lingering European debt concerns. In fact, according to a recent Conference Board survey of economists, U.S. consumer confidence registered a one-year high this month as optimism about the labor market offsets other concerns. Consumer confidence continues to be looked at closely, because steady increases may signal a boost in consumer spending – which makes up 70 percent of economic activity.

Also helping drive consumer spending are recent gains in American’s income, up 5.7 percent in 2011, which contributed to the highest spending levels since 2007. With real wages and salaries growing more significantly over the past several months and an uptick in the consumer savings rate, Americans are better equipped to handle things like higher gasoline prices.

When you consider the recent findings of the Randstad Workmonitor Survey, improvements in real wages and salaries couldn’t have come at a better time. U.S. workers appear to be increasingly affected by streamlined staffing levels and larger workloads. According to the survey, 44 percent of workers feel they fall short when they don’t respond to email or phone calls immediately and 60 percent receive calls or emails outside regular office hours. With dwindling personal time, four out of ten workers admit to handling private matters during work.

So, where are the jobs being created in the U.S. and what are the hot job titles and industries? Well, it is no secret that we are seeing some incredible job growth in the engineering and also information technology fields. The demand for degreed, qualified individuals in these sectors remains very strong, and we predict that will only continue. In fact, according to Bloomberg News, a strong rise in hiring in the technology sector is driving a job market revival. Industry data supports what we have seen in our own business for many months – a demand for skilled workers, particularly those in the mobile application field. With three vacancies for every job seeker in the technology field, according to Bloomberg, we may be seeing the beginning of another technology jobs boom. Other key professions to watch in 2012 include finance and accounting, pharmaceutical and healthcare. In our own business, we continue to see high demand for jobs in these sectors, such as ICU registered nurses, nurse practitioners, pharmacy technicians, financial analysts, and civil engineers, to name a few.

The February jobs report is another positive sign that the U.S. economy is improving, and companies are back to investing and growing their business in 2012. As we break down these numbers, you can see it is evident that organizations are rethinking the way they hire and manage their workforce. Many companies are using temporary or contract labor to supplement their workforce and have the flexibility to meet the demands for their products and services. In February, the more than 45,000 temporary jobs added made up about 20% of total job creation.

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Feb 15

This year’s employment situation has started off on a more encouraging note than it did in 2011, reinforcing many economists’ projections of a better year for U.S. job creation.  The economy added 243,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent. The unemployment rate in January of 2011 was 9.1 percent.
U.S. private-sector employment added 257,000 in January, compared to 119,000 in January 2011. Professional and business services performed well in January with the sector adding 70,000 jobs. Gains were seen in accounting and bookkeeping (+13,000) and in architectural and engineering services (+7,000). Health care employment also trended up, adding 31,000 new jobs in January.
Coupled with this good news, our own U.S. Employee Confidence Index climbed 5.0 points—its biggest increase to date. There is no doubt that the job outlook appears to be brighter this year, and although many reports continue to say that this U.S. recovery is not fast enough to fill the millions of jobs lost, economists recently surveyed by the Associated Press expect employers to add 2.1 million jobs in 2012, an average of 175,000 a month. That would improve upon the monthly pace of 136,000 last year and 78,000 in 2010.
The U.S. temporary help sector contributed largely to job creation this month, adding 20,000 jobs in January. This time last year, there were 2,206,100 temporary help services jobs. By the close of the year, there were 2,303,700 logging an overall growth of 4.42 percent in 12 months. In fact, the sector grew approximately four times faster than overall jobs in 2011. We are optimistic that 2012 will continue to see growth within the U.S. temporary services sector, particularly given the strong performance towards the end of 2011—capturing a 1.75 percent market share.
Four key professions are expected to see healthy job gains in 2012. These include technology, finance and accounting, engineering, and healthcare sectors. In our own business, we continue to see high demand for jobs, such as mobile architects, developers, clinical research associates, civil engineers, and forensic and government accountants, to name a few. And, according to Moody Analytics’ recent forecast, professional services, education and healthcare, and leisure and hospitality will lead job growth, collectively producing more than 1 million jobs in 2012.
There’s no denying that the U.S. recovery has been sending some mixed signals, which in turn has created a sense of uncertainty. In spite of this, our latest Employee Confidence Index and January’s jobs report solidifies that we are moving in the right direction and we remain hopeful that the U.S. job market will continue to see improvements in 2012.
Jan 06

A very happy New Year to all of you as we enter into what will be a very interesting year with the upcoming election campaign, and what continues to be one of the hottest agenda items – job creation. The 2011 economy closed on a high note, adding 200,000 nonfarm payroll jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.5 percent in December. Private-sector employment added 212,000 in December and rose by 1.9 million over 2011. Retail trade continued to increase, adding 28,000 jobs in December and gained 240,000 over the past 12 months. Professional and business services remained relatively flat this month. The sector added 42,000 jobs per month on average for the first 10 months of the year. Despite a decline of 7,500 jobs this month, the temporary help services sector has added more than 160,000 jobs in 2011.

As we all know, 2011 had a mix of positive and negative news and indicators which created some challenges in improving the economic situation. As a result, the year was characterized by ebbs and flows in both consumer and business confidence levels. Our own Employee Confidence Index, which measures confidence in employment situation and optimism in the economy, experienced a 2011 confidence high point in May at 53.9, while just three months later hit its lowest point in 2011 at 41.0.

When it comes to worker sentiment in the coming year, our own Employee Attachment Index finds workers will continue to have mixed emotions about economic optimism and personal employment. The index, which measures how attached employees are to their employers based on engagement and retention levels, reports 47 percent of workers optimistic and three-fourths believe their companies have great futures. Yet, a full 20 percent predict they will lose their job in 2012.

More mixed news came out of key sectors this year, with government agencies down by more than 280,000 jobs in 2011, and employment in both state and local government trending down since second half of 2008. However, private sector jobs were up overall in 2011, and increasing by an average of 131,000 jobs per month. And, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the sector has now recovered 33 percent of jobs lost during the period of January 2008 to February 2010.

Within private jobs, professional and business services led the movement, as demand for jobs in this sector increased throughout the year. Engineering, IT, and healthcare (which created around 20 percent of all new jobs in 2011), continue to be high-growth industries with low unemployment rates. Another high performance sector this year, and for the past three years, is temporary help services. According to the BLS, the industry saw an uptick in the second half of 2011, averaging 20,000 jobs per month from July to November compared to 5,000 in January through June.

As we move into the New Year, it is important to note that the economy did not get to where it is at overnight. Although it will take time to create the volume of jobs needed to significantly drive down unemployment, we do believe the nation will be closer to that point in 2012. However, according to economists, the economy will remain vulnerable to potential setbacks due to reports around the global economy potentially entering a recession. We are all hopeful to see steady and broad job growth and putting Americans back to work. I wish you a wonderful and prosperous start to 2012!

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Dec 02

The economy is finishing strong as we near the end of 2011, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.6 percent in November and the economy adding 120,000 more nonfarm payroll jobs. Private-sector employment continued to deliver significant growth, adding 140,000 in November, largely in service-providing sectors. Retail trade rose by 50,000 this month with retailers adding an average of 14,000 jobs per month since December 2009. The professional and business services industry also led the private-sector growth, increasing 33,000 this month, thanks in part to modest gains in temporary help services.

In line with the recent 0.4 percent drop in the national unemployment rate, individual states are beginning to see improvements as well. In fact, unemployment rates fell in three-quarters of U.S. states last month according to the Labor Department, indicating that there are pockets of the country starting to experience modest job gains. In addition, many professional sectors are boasting low unemployment rates, such as accounting/finance at 5.8 percent and information technology at 6.6 percent.

As illustrated by our own Employee Confidence Index, workers are feeling more positive about their personal employment situation and more optimistic about the economic environment overall. This growing confidence leads to more consumer spending, which is helping to fuel holiday sales and retail job growth. This year’s holiday shopping season has already outperformed last year’s, according to a report by ShopperTrak. Retail sales were up seven percent over 2010, with buyers spending $11.4 billion at retail stores and malls on Black Friday, marking the biggest year-over-year increase since 2007. Also, retailers alone are hiring about 500,000 seasonal employees this year, says the National Retail Federation.

Taking all these factors into consideration, we believe this year will close with moderate but steady economic growth and will continue that trend as we enter 2012.

 

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Nov 15

October’s employment report revealed steady but modest growth, adding 80,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls, the second consecutive month of job gains. The unemployment rate remains little changed at 9.0 percent. We are seeing wages slightly increase, especially in the higher skill sets where demand continues to be strong and lower unemployment rates exist.  In addition, August and September payrolls had higher job creation than originally reported, with August revised to 104,000 and September posting an increase of 158,000.

There is no doubt that this has been a challenging year in terms of job growth and economic stability. Though we do see many of our clients hiring, it is clear that companies continue to remain cautious about adding fixed labor costs to their operating expenses. Many of our customers utilize our candidates on temporary and contract assignments for that very reason. It offers them the flexibility to better manage their labor costs to meet the demands for their products and services.

As history has shown, employers typically ramp up their contract workforce coming out of a recession and cut back going into it. And, since the temporary staffing industry is considered a leading economic indicator-the good news is that this sector continues to post year-over-year growth, which tells us that we are not headed into a double-dip recession. Other positive news coming out of this month’s report is that private-sector businesses added 104,000 jobs in October. Professional and business services was a top performer with employment increasing 32,000 this month, and temporary hiring rose by 15,000.

While we expect slow-moving growth for the remainder of 2011 and likely for the first quarter of 2012, we remain optimistic that we’ll return to healthier hiring levels for both permanent and temporary staffing next year. A closer look at the unemployment rate in terms of education, skill and geography supports this outlook. As an example, we continue to see high demand for individuals trained in engineering, IT and healthcare, as well as in the administrative/clerical and accounting and financial fields.

As businesses strive to put their best talent in place to lead in the recovery process, it is also important to focus on engagement and retention strategies. In fact, a recent Randstad Employee Attachment Index, which tracks attitudes and intentions about their jobs and helps employers assess employee attachment and volatility levels, outlined the importance of focusing not only on retention but also engagement strategies. This combination forms employee attachment to an organization-ultimately creating a stronger bond, which results in higher motivation, productivity and profitability. Employers must stay focused on both components to successfully retain top talent or face expensive and challenging vacancies to fill. Get the full report.

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Oct 21

As many of you know, SFN Group recently joined global HR Services provider Randstad—an exciting step for our organization. Moving forward, I am pleased to take over the monthly News Brief under the Randstad name. We feel this is a great vehicle to deliver relevant and timely insight into the country’s labor and employment landscape.

Slightly encouraging news emerged today from the September employment report, as 103,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payroll this month, well above economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate, however, remains unchanged at 9.1 percent. The private-sector continued to deliver job growth, adding 137,000 jobs in September. Professional and business services remains a strong performing segment with employment increasing 48,000 this month. Construction employment also rebounded, adding 26,000, after little movement since February.

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Sep 02
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The August employment report delivered disappointing news, adding no overall jobs to nonfarm payroll this month, performing well below economists’ expectations of 75,000 additional jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1 percent. The private-sector continued to show growth, adding 17,000 jobs in August. Healthcare remained a strong-performing segment with employment increasing +30,000, alongside healthy improvements in professional and business services adding +28,000. There was a one-time anomaly this month because of the union strikes in the information industry which brought the overall numbers and the private sector numbers down by 45,000, but even adding that back in, the numbers were below expectations and anemic at best.

With the credit rating crisis and recent stock market volatility still fresh in the minds of many Americans, we continue to see a weakening of consumer confidence. However, sentiments are quite different among corporate entities, where confidence edges higher as profits are returning to healthy levels and banks are thriving. While talk of a double-dip recession has surfaced, there is little evidence to support this claim. The temporary help sector, which is typically a leading indicator coming in and out of a recession, is still growing – historically this sector shows negative growth at least six months before a recession.

With Labor Day on the horizon, summer is coming to an end and students are returning to campuses. One clear message that has emerged during the recession and recovery is the importance of a college degree. Industries that are thriving, such as healthcare, accounting and finance, and IT, all require a college education. Most revealing is the low unemployment rate for college graduates, currently standing at 4.3 percent and less than half that of the national unemployment rate.

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Aug 05

This month delivers better-than-anticipated job growth, with the economy adding 117,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July (economist consensus 75,000). The unemployment rate also edged down to 9.1 percent. The private-sector continued to grow, adding 154,000 jobs. Professional and business services remains a strong performing segment with employment increasing (+34,000) in July, alongside healthy improvements in education and health services adding 38,000. 

This month’s stronger employment numbers may help to ease the country’s general feeling of uncertainty about the future of the economy. Fears of a return recession are largely unwarranted, as we continue to see moderate growth in a number of areas. GDP, although not at the healthiest level we’d like, nonetheless remains positive. Private-sector continues to deliver strong performances, as does Temporary Help Services with a 7.6 percent increase in July. This is particularly insightful because temporary services are a leading indicator of economic health and historically begin to decline many months before a recession materializes. These positive trends, alongside robust corporate profits, all negate the likelihood that a recession is on its way.

But, the insecurity about key global macroeconomic indicators has led to a general “wait and see” situation. Unfortunately, this type of holding pattern can often produce high anxiety and fear within an already fragile country. However, as progress is being made in regard to the debt ceiling and with positive job numbers such as these beginning to resurface, consumer nervousness may begin to ease.

Jul 08

More evidence of tempered job growth this month, with the economy only adding 18,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, resulting in an unemployment rate of 9.2 percent. These latest figures, along with disappointing numbers in May are signs the economy may be in a soft patch. However, although pauses in growth are not that unexpected, they could be indicative of an ongoing volatile and lengthy recovery process related to this historically deep recession. 

Although the private-sector market slowed a bit in June, this is a segment of the economy that has produced at a moderate pace, adding 57,000 jobs this month for a total of 945,000 year to date which is almost equal to the total number for all of 2010 (1.1 million). Professional and business services employment increased in June (+12,000) while healthcare employment continued to trend up (+14,000). Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 24,000 jobs per month.

Despite a slowdown in overall job growth during this second quarter, compared to the first three months of 2011, we are cautiously optimistic that activity will pick-up as we move through the third quarter.

Jun 03

After a week of poor economic news, the May jobs report reflects more moderate growth than in recent months, adding only 54,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, following gains that averaged 220,000 in the prior three months. The unemployment rate was little changed at 9.1 percent. Private sector businesses added 83,000 jobs, largely driven by increases in professional and business services (+44,000), notably accounting and bookkeeping services (+18,000), and in computer systems design and related services (+8,000).

Given just how deep the recession hit the U.S. economy, we are not surprised to see a tempering of job growth. Organizations continue to seek operational improvements through heightened productivity before they turn to hiring additional headcount – most companies have learned to do more with less. Increased output from fewer workers has become a top objective for many companies as a result of the historical recession. Not until maximum productivity has been achieved from existing resources, will many employers begin to resume hiring, and possibly never again at previous levels. This is in large part why we haven’t seen the explosion of hiring levels as we’ve seen in past recoveries.

Alongside many other companies, we too are pursuing smarter, more efficient ways to achieve our business objectives and those of our clients. For example, we’ve invested in innovative mobile platforms and initiatives to help meet the need for faster, more productive job searching, recruiting and hiring. As workers and companies alike seek ways to find jobs, make hires, and access valuable resources faster, our mobile initiatives deliver that efficiency. With productivity enhancements such as this still to be made by organizations, we believe job growth will continue to be moderate, and steady at best.

-William Grubbs

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